I am an actuary who has spent over a decade building billion-dollar risk models for Fortune 100 companies. Now I use that same quantitative focus to help traders navigate the big macro stories, manage risk, and work toward growing their capital without treating the market like a casino. Everything I share is for educational purposes only and is not personal financial advice.
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Crude Realities: What's Driving Inflation?
Published 24 days ago • 4 min read
Hello Reader, Core Inflation Looks Fine. Gas Prices Are Doing All the Work. Rates have sat at 3.50% to 3.75% all year. This is the first meeting where a hike is actually the base case, and two prints last week are why. Thursday's producer prices came in at 0.4% for the month, in line, but the annual number jumped to 5.4% against 5.3% expected. Energy alone was up 4.2% on the month and diesel jumped 24.1%. Core PPI, which strips food and energy out, actually came in soft at 0.2%. Hike odds...
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