Hello Reader, Happy Easter! I'm keeping this one short. This week's data confirmed what I've been saying for months: the economy was already cracking before this energy shock. Now it's accelerating. Trump has shifted his Iran strike deadline for the fourth time - Tuesday at 8:00 PM Eastern, "Power Plant and Bridge Day." Both downed F-15E pilots have been rescued from behind enemy lines. Let's get into it. Macro The Numbers Don't Lie ISM Manufacturing PMI came in at 52.7, third straight month...
5 days ago • 8 min read
Hello Reader, The Pentagon is now drawing up plans for ground operations on Iranian soil. Let that sink in. Every "pause" and "talks" headline this week got faded within hours. Oil crashed 11% on Monday when the White House claimed "productive conversations" with Tehran. Iran immediately denied any talks were happening and called it psychological warfare. Oil ripped right back. That pattern repeated all week. Headlines drop, futures spike or dump, then reality sets in and we're right back...
12 days ago • 13 min read
Hello Reader, As I'm writing this, futures are set to open in a few hours - but the charts and key levels below will be updated after the open so you have the freshest picture heading into Monday. Last week I told you the question wasn't whether oil spikes. It was what comes after. The war deepened, oil kept ripping, and the data confirmed what I've been saying for months: the economy was already cracking before this energy shock. Now it's accelerating. Hormuz is the only variable that...
26 days ago • 11 min read
Hi Reader, Quick note before we dive in. I've decided to move to one newsletter per week going forward (on Sundays). Each one takes about 4-5 hours to research and write, and since I also run my own business, I can't keep sacrificing that kind of time on what's still a hobby for me. I love doing this and I want to keep teaching and sharing what I see, but I need to be realistic about the time commitment. That said, I will be posting on Twitter in real time whenever I open or close any trade I...
about 1 month ago • 12 min read
Hello Reader, We woke up to a war with Iran this weekend. Before I get into the markets, I want to say this first. I know a lot of you are traveling abroad right now, and many of you are from the region. If that is you, please stay safe. Take every precaution you can. Look out for each other. Now let me break down what happened, what it means for markets, and how I am positioning. Macro What Happened in Iran On Friday, markets gapped down and closed red. Traders headed into the weekend on...
about 1 month ago • 15 min read
Hello Reader, Markets are up today because Jane Street got sued. Let that sink in. A lot happened in the last 48 hours. Trump's State of the Union put big insurance companies on notice. A lawsuit against one of the most powerful trading firms on the planet sent Bitcoin higher and got crypto Twitter spinning conspiracy theories. And in the middle of the trading day, CME shut down metals and natural gas futures. No warning. One of those weeks. Let's get into it. Macro 1) Trump's State of the...
about 1 month ago • 13 min read
Hello Reader, I hope you're sitting down for this one. The Supreme Court just ruled 6-3 that the entire IEEPA tariff program is illegal. Every tariff imposed under that authority? Gone. And within hours, the administration slapped a replacement 15% global tariff under a completely different statute. Business as usual. But here's the part that should make your blood boil: while you and I were paying higher prices on everything from groceries to electronics for the past year, the Secretary of...
about 2 months ago • 16 min read
Hello Reader, Happy Presidents Day! We got the CPI print on Friday (delayed because of the government shutdown earlier this month), and the headline number came in at 2.4% year-over-year, below the 2.5% consensus. Core CPI landed at 2.5%, in line with expectations and the lowest reading since March 2021. On paper, that sounds like progress. But let me ask you something. At this point, is there anyone trusting these slow roasted cooked numbers from the government? The same BLS that just...
about 2 months ago • 10 min read
Hello Reader, The BLS just admitted 403,000 jobs from 2025 never existed. Wednesday's jobs report came in hot. +130K versus 55K expected. Algos bought it. Market flushed higher. Then someone read past the headline. The BLS originally said 2025 created 584K jobs. Today they revised that to 181K. That's 403,000 jobs that just disappeared. The monthly average for 2025 collapsed from 48K to 15K. And remember the BLS Commissioner who got fired in August for calling out these downward adjustments?...
about 2 months ago • 6 min read
